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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-26 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 137.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-26 01:16:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 252316 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Boris, located about 2000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and the system could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of disturbed weather is located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-06-26 01:15:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 252315 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Boris Graphics
2020-06-25 22:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 20:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 20:53:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-25 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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