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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-05 07:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 050546 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-05 07:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 050531 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-05 04:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 02:39:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 02:39:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-05 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050238 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center. The intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this evening, perhaps generously. The cyclone should accelerate to the east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters stronger mid-level flow. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. After tonight's diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear and cooler waters. Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is forecast, similar to the model consensus. Extratropical transition is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start on Bermuda during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 32.5N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Jul 4 the center of Five was located near 32.5, -66.3 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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