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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-12 19:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121748 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sally, located near southern Florida. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also becoming better organized. If this development trend continues, then a tropical depression will likely form later today or tonight. The system is expected to move westward then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms located near the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure that has developed along a tropical wave. Environmental conditions support some additional development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, upper-level winds could become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Sally are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Sally are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 19:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 17:46:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:25:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 19:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 28.0, -57.8 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-09-12 19:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 57.8W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-12 17:03:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:03:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:03:47 GMT
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