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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-09-12 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 122034 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day 5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner. Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Graphics
2020-09-12 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:32:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Rene was located near 24.3, -45.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 122033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 45.6W ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected by Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is possible over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-09-12 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 122033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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