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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-13 16:55:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:53:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt, Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in 3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening. Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Karina was located near 17.6, -114.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131452 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 114.7W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the southwest of the center. An automated Mexican weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 131452 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 34(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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