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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-14 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 08:49:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 08:49:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 140849 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-14 10:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Rene was located near 27.4, -48.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 48.3W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140847 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours, possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection. This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a northward shift of the guidance at that time. While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water. Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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