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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 45.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 45.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 49.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 50.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.8N 51.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 45.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-20 19:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Beta was located near 27.6, -93.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 12A
2020-09-20 19:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BETA HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 93.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 93.6 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-20 19:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Wilfred, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south of the Azores and continues to produce disorganized shower activity to the northwest and north of its center of circulation. This system is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A small low pressure system has moved inland over the south-central Florida peninsula and is located just to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some development could occur when the low moves westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and on Monday. However, by late Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For more information on this disturbance, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 Local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service are available on the web at www.weather.gov. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-20 19:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201732 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure system centered about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today, with thunderstorm activity still showing signs of organization. If this trend continues, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression later today or tonight, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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