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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-21 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-21 01:08:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202308 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable during the next several days and therefore development of this system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-21 01:06:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 202306 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-20 22:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:55:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 20:55:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-20 22:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202049 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle. The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races northeastward across the central Atlantic. Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA aids through the rest of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 27.9N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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