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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Graphics
2021-08-24 22:44:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 20:44:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 20:44:55 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-24 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 738 WTPZ43 KNHC 242041 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center for more than 12 hours. As a result, Marty has degenerated into a remnant low. The initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on ASCAT-B/-A passes between 1700-1800 UTC that still showed a significant fetch of 25-kt winds over much of the northern quadrant, including a few embedded 28-kt vectors. Since Marty is forecast to remain over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and within a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds, gradual spin down of the vortex and weakening of the cyclone's peak winds are expected until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains westward, or 270/10 kt. For the next 36 hours or so, the remnant low is forecast to move westward along the southern periphery of a sprawling deep-layer ridge located northwest through northeast of Marty. Thereafter, a motion toward the west-southwest is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models, which have shifted a little to the south on this forecast cycle. This is the last advisory being issued on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.5N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 the center of Marty was located near 20.5, -119.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242040 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...MARTY DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 119.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242040 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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