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Tropical Storm Bertha Graphics
2020-05-27 14:10:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 12:10:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 12:10:17 GMT
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bertha
Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-05-27 14:09:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271209 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning. The circulation has become better defined and the center has reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday. There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. 2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bertha (AT2/AL022020)
2020-05-27 14:07:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 8:30 AM EDT Wed May 27 the center of Bertha was located near 32.7, -79.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bertha Public Advisory Number 1
2020-05-27 14:07:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 271207 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach to South Santee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, in this case in the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 830 AM EDT (1230 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track the center of Bertha will move onshore in the warning area in the next few hours and the move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina later today and into west-central North Carolina by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression after moving inland and become a remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area in the next couple of hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-05-27 14:07:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 271207 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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