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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-06-20 19:01:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201701 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Claudette, located inland over east-central Georgia. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 16:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 14:43:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 15:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-20 16:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 467 WTNT43 KNHC 201442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water. Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast. As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 33.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-06-20 16:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 201442 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) RALEIGH NC 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SURF CITY NC 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 33.8, -84.2 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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