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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-04 23:01:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:01:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:25:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-04 22:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042058 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The last aircraft reconnaissance fix, recorded a couple of hours ago, indicated that Gamma's center had wobbled a little to the right of the previous 6-hour motion and is located near the southeastern edge of the convective canopy. Flight-level winds adjusted to the surface, SFMR wind data, and a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals stiff 20-25 kt southerly shear impinging on the south portion of the cyclone. Subsequently, the large-scale models and the ECMWF/GFS statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the shear magnitude increasing during the next 24 hours. This inhibiting upper wind pattern should induce weakening soon. Although the shear is predicted to decrease somewhat around mid-period, Gamma should exhibit little change in strength through the remaining period which is in best agreement with all of the skilled intensity guidance. As mentioned in previous advisories, it cannot be stressed enough the relatively high level of uncertainty in this intensity forecast, and that it's primarily dependent on whether or not the cyclone moves back over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should continue to move little, or meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of tomorrow. By Monday night, the global models are in good agreement with the western extent of a subtropical ridge reestablishing temporarily over the central Gulf of Mexico. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn and move west-southwestward through the 72 hour forecast period. After a brief reduction in forward speed late Wednesday, while Potential-Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, a turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday as the ridge, once again, builds back over the central Gulf in response to PTC Twenty-Six approaching the northern Gulf coast. The official track forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous one through the 60 hour period to agree more with the HCCA consensus, and shifted to the right through day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.4N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-10-04 22:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 042057 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-04 22:56:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Gamma was located near 22.4, -87.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Twenty-Six was located near 16.7, -76.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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