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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 251455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 9(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 51(54) 12(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) X(34) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) X(36) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-25 15:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 17.8, -83.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-25 15:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251455 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 83.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-25 13:01:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 12:01:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 09:33:10 GMT
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