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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 51
2017-09-28 22:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 67.8W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..430NE 300SE 230SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 67.8W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.1N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.1N 58.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.7N 44.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 110SE 110SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 240SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 48.8N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 67.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-28 16:57:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 14:57:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 15:28:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 50
2017-09-28 16:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281450 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 A burst of strong convection containing cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has developed just east of the center since the previous advisory. Based on the recent inner-core convective development and a Dvorak current intensity estimate of 3.5/55 kt, the initial intensity estimate is being maintained at 60 kt for this advisory. Also, the last AMSU overpass around 0200 UTC indicated that Maria has retained tropical characteristics based on a deep warm core that extends from near the surface to above the 200 mb level, accompanied by a warm anomaly of more than 2.5 deg C, present in the upper-levels of the cyclone. Maria is now situated on the north side of a strong deep-layer ridge, and the initial motion estimate is now toward the east or 085/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to move in a general easterly direction for the next 12-24 h along the northern edge of the aforementioned ridge. Afterwards, Maria is forecast to get caught up in west-southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that is currently located over the Great Lakes region, causing the cyclone to accelerate toward the east-northeast at forward speeds in excess of 30 kt by 36 h. The new track guidance remains in excellent agreement with cross-track differences of only about 60 nmi and speed differences of just a couple of knots. As a result, little change was made to the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 36 h or so while Maria remains over SSTs of 26C-27C and the vertical shear is less than 10 kt. By 36 h and beyond, Maria will be moving over sub-25C SSTs, reaching 21 deg C water by 48 h. The colder water, along with increasing wind shear and dry mid-level humidity values of less than 40 percent, should induce some weakening. Maria is expected to become extratropical by 72 h due to these unfavorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. However, given the very cold water that will exist beneath the cyclone, it is possible that Maria could become extratropical as early as 48 h. The extratropical low is expected to be absorbed by a larger low or frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 h, before the low moves across Ireland. The intensity forecast remains in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 36.8N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2017-09-28 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 281449 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-28 16:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 28 the center of Maria was located near 36.8, -69.3 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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