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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-29 22:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE STALLS NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun May 29 the center of BONNIE was located near 33.0, -80.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 9
2016-05-29 22:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 292031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 ...BONNIE STALLS NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 80.4W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 80.4 West. The depression has become nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move over northeastern South Carolina through Monday, and pass near or over the southeastern coast of North Carolina Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across east-central Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. Farther north, the moisture from Bonnie will produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region into southern New England through Wednesday. Some rainfall totals so far include 8.20 inches near Ridgeland, South Carolina, and 7.27 inches near Oliver, Georgia. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-29 17:06:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 14:44:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2016 15:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-05-29 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 291444 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 Most of the deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone became separated from the center overnight, and Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression before reaching the south-central coast of South Carolina. Aircraft data indicate that Bonnie made landfall just east of Charleston near the Isle of Palms around 1230 UTC. The tropical cyclone has continued to move faster than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 360/8 kt. The global models insist that a reduction in forward speed will occur today while the cyclone moves around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. As a result of the faster forward motion, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward accordingly, and now shows the center moving farther inland during the next day or so. After 48 hours, a slightly faster northeastward motion is expected to begin. The updated NHC track is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus. Bonnie is forecast to weaken some during the next 12 to 24 hours, but little change in strength is expected after that time since a portion of the circulation could be over water. A track farther inland than anticipated would result in a faster rate of weakening, and Bonnie would become a remnant low sooner in this scenario. The primary impact from Bonnie will continue to be locally heavy rainfall, which is occurring over much of eastern Georgia, and portions of the Carolinas. These rains will gradually spread northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 33.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.6N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 34.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 34.1N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 34.1N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 35.3N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 38.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-05-29 16:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 291444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) 1(21) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 1(18) 1(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 4(24) X(24) 1(25) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 7(21) 4(25) X(25) 1(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 6 9(15) 5(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) FLORENCE SC 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 8(13) 6(19) 5(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 7(14) 6(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) 1(27) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 9 7(16) 4(20) 2(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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