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Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2016-10-08 17:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 15:41:18 GMT

Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-08 17:10:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 14:58:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 15:06:36 GMT

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 42

2016-10-08 17:01:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081500 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge. The cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and the area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center. Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft around 1200 UTC indicated that the surface winds have decreased to around 65 kt. (Very recent SFMR winds of 78 kt were taken over shallow water where the instrument is affected by shoaling and provides unreliable output). Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this frontal system within the next couple of days. During the next 12 to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area. Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 10 kt. The steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this basis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes absorbed. Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in keeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it southward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only a broad area of low pressure. Due to the degradation of Matthew's radar signature, the hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will not longer be issued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the coastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.0N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 34.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

2016-10-08 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 081457 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 6 11(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GREENSBORO NC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 9 5(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 16 48(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 21 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 62 18(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) CHERRY PT NC 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 59 29(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NEW RIVER NC 50 2 25(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 69 20(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MOREHEAD CITY 50 3 23(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 90 4(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SURF CITY NC 50 16 13(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SURF CITY NC 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) WILMINGTON NC 50 22 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 61 6(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BALD HEAD ISL 64 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LITTLE RIVER 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GEORGETOWN SC 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 42

2016-10-08 16:57:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...MATTHEW MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South Carolina today, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain near hurricane strength while the center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) has been observed at a private weather station near Winyah Bay, South Carolina, within the past hour. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Charleston, South Carolina. Strong wind gusts are also occurring well inland in North and South Carolina. Laurinberg, North Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Charleston, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina as well as from Cape Lookout to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Bogue Inlet to Cape Lookout, North Carolina and from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early tonight along the coast of North Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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