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Tropical Storm LISA Graphics
2016-09-22 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 02:39:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2016 02:37:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm LISA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-22 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220238 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 Lisa remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Deep convection has expanded in coverage this evening, but recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is located near the far western edge of the sharp gradient of cold cloud tops. The ASCAT pass did not cover much of the northeastern portion of the circulation, but it did detected a large area of 35 kt winds to the north and north-northeast of the center. Based on these data and satellite estimates of 35 and 45 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Lisa is already located within an area of strong upper-level southwesterly winds to the southeast of a large upper-level low. During the next day or two the tropical storm is forecast to approach the cut-off low, which according to the SHIPS model will produce 30-40 kt of shear over Lisa. As a result, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant low in about 3 days, and it could dissipate before the end of the foreast period. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially an update of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The microwave and ASCAT fixes suggest that Lisa is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt, which is a little right of the previous forecasts. The cyclone is expected to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge currently between 30 and 40W. Later in the period, an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause Lisa or its remnants to turn northward and recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by day 5. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, and only a small eastward adjustment was required during the first 72 hours. The updated track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 20.2N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 21.6N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 23.0N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 24.3N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 26.7N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-09-22 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 220237 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm LISA (AT3/AL132016)
2016-09-22 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LISA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 21 the center of LISA was located near 19.2, -32.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LISA Public Advisory Number 10
2016-09-22 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016 ...LISA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 32.8W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 32.8 West. Lisa is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected tonight or early Thursday, but slow weakening is expected to begin by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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