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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-08 05:04:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2015 02:36:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2015 03:04:48 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 42

2015-10-08 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080235 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a tropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered cloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined low-level center. However, model analyses and surface data indicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal zone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time. Nonetheless, since the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post- tropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated. Cyclone phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the system will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is also shown in the official forecast. The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass. Global models show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several days, and so does the official forecast. Post-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east, or 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies. The steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level trough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should move at a progressively slower forward speed over the period. In 2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of the abovementioned trough. There is fairly good agreement among the global models on this scenario. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based upon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 42.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 42.8N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 42.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 42.5N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 42.0N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 40.5N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 39.0N 10.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-08 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 7 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 42.0, -37.0 with movement E at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 42

2015-10-08 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015 ...JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 37.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joaquin was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 37.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with the post-tropical cyclone are expected to spread over portions of the Azores on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Swells affecting much of the eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in association with these swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Joaquin. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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