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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-22 04:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...CENTER OF BETA NEARING THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 96.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow north and northeast motion are expected on Tuesday, and a faster east-northeastward motion should begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland overnight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday as Beta moves just inland along the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Matagorda Bay, Texas, has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-09-22 04:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 There has been a recent increase in convection along the Texas coast just to the north of Beta's center this evening. A blend of flight-level and SFMR winds from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beta's peak intensity remains around 40 kt. The aircraft has reported a minimum central pressure of around 999 mb, which is unchanged from earlier today. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction should gradually weaken the cyclone over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above model guidance through 24 hours since a significant portion of the circulation is forecast to remain over water. Strong vertical wind shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening when Beta moves near or just offshore of the Upper Texas coast in a couple of days. Beta is moving northwestward or 325/3 kt. The tropical storm should move just inland along the central Texas coast overnight, but it is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday as steering currents collapse. A weak trough over the south-central United States should begin to steer Beta east-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed should continue until dissipation in 72-96 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 28.4N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-09-22 04:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220247 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 34 16 14(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GALVESTON TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 21 12(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 7 10(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 9(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 45 15(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-22 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-22 01:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA INCHING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Beta was located near 28.3, -96.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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