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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2026-07-19 04:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190233 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 800 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low pressure area well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a combination of the earlier scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 290/10 kt. The depression is on the south side of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northwestern Mexico. This feature should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward for the next three days or so, followed by a more westward motion as the ridge builds westward. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, although the HWRF and HMON show a more westward track than the other models after 36 h. The track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The scatterometer data suggested that the depression's radius of maximum wind is 70-100 n mi, and it may take some time for this to contract or for the cyclone to form a new inner wind core. Once the system gets better organized, though, the environment is favorable for steady to rapid strengthening, particularly after 24 h. The intensity forecast calls for the system to strengthen to 80 kt by 60 h, and this is at the lower edge of the intensity guidance. The forecast 95-kt peak intensity is more in the middle of the guidance envelope, but there are several models calling for the system to become a major hurricane at 72-96 h. Slow weakening is expected to start by 120 h since the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 11.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 12.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 13.4N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 14.6N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 16.0N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.7N 122.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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