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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2026-09-10 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 722 WTPZ44 KNHC 100233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026 There has been no significant increase in the overall organization of the tropical cyclone over the past several hours. The system is producing vigorous deep convection well east of the estimated center location with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. These heavy showers and thunderstorms are not very well organized with little evidence of convective banding at this time. There is some westerly shear over the depression since the low-level center is near the western edge of the main cloud mass. Given that the system has not become much better organized since the previous advisory, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. This is just a little below the subjective Dvorak estimate. The center appears to have reformed in the low-level vorticity maximum on the northern side of the broad circulation, and is a little to the north of the previous track. A mid-tropospheric ridge should prevail to the north of the system for the next several days, which should keep the cyclone moving on a generally westward track. Late in the forecast period, the ridge shifts westward and builds a little. This could result in a gradual turn to the left around day 5. The official forecast is a little north of the previous NHC track and is close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. The system is expected to be in a reasonably conductive environment for intensification in a few days. However, the current westerly shear could be an impediment to short-term strengthening. Also, some arc clouds have been seen emanating from the cyclone on visible satellite imagery, which is usually indicative of the presence of some dry mid-level air. However, these negative factors are expected to be short-lived, and the system is forecast to strengthen and eventually become a hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the simple and corrected consensus intensity model predictions and is the same as in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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