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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-24 10:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240839 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016 Deep convection has become more concentrated in a small, quasi-circular CDO feature, and overall the tropical cyclone has a fairly symmetrical presentation on satellite images. The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Georgette is forecast to remain in an environment of vertical shear below 10 kt for the next 48 hours, but SSTs should cool to below 25 deg C over that time. Therefore, some additional intensification is forecast over the short term, but a slow weakening trend should be underway in 24 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus, IVCN, and near the high end of the guidance. Based on satellite center fixes, the initial motion estimate is about the same as in the previous advisory, or 290/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric anticyclone is currently centered to the north of the hurricane. This high is predicted to shift westward over the next few days, leading to a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Georgette. As a result, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest and decelerate. Near the end of the forecast period, Georgette will likely become a shallow cyclone and turn toward the left in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and leans toward the latest GFS solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.2N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.0N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.9N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 20.8N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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